mastodon 4.6.9Canadian living in the UK. This account is where I cover UK, European, and Asia-Pacific elections.
Even if Andy #Burnham were to be allowed to stand in the Gorton and Denton by-election, there's no guarantee that he'd actually make a return to the Commons.
On current polling, Labour is only slightly better than 50:50 to hold the seat. And it's hard to tell whether Burnham being on the ballot paper - and having to resign his mayoralty to do so - would help or harm.
For the first time since the Welsh Assembly was formed, it looks like Plaid Cymru is on track to be the largest party in the #Senedd.
The change in the electoral system will help Plaid, but this is more a Labour collapse story than anything else. They've been in government since the National Assembly was formed in 1999. To drop to third would be remarkable.
STATE OF THE CANDIDATES AT 17:00
We have nearly three-quarters of constituencies declared, and Catherine Connolly nearly has enough votes to officially cross the winning line.
But when 13% of ballots are spoiled, there's a clear message to politicians in Dublin to allow more candidates on the ballot paper.
Catherine Connolly has just been formally declared the next President of #Ireland. She will be inaugurated on 11 November.
But with 13% of all votes cast being invalid, there's clear unhappiness from the electorate. She, and the executive, will have to understand this and address it.
STATE OF THE CANDIDATES AT 19:00:
Just three constituencies away from an official declaration.
In Scotland... on these numbers, it would be difficult to see how the SNP can credibly argue any mandate for an #indyref2.
Might there be a majority of pro-independence MSPs? 50:50.
Will that be on a majority of votes? Not even close.
Just finished refreshing the UK polling average.
If a general election were to be held today, the Conservatives would most likely (3/4 likelihood) have the ability to make or break a Reform government.
The alternative coalition... well, I don't see how that would hold together.
In the last month, we've seen the polling numbers for Reform UK retreat somewhat.
If the election were held a month ago, the likelihood of a Reform majority was round 1 in 3. Now, it's closer to 1 in 11.
If the next Senedd election were held today, the formation of government will be more complicated than at any point since devolution.
While Reform would win the most seats, they wouldn't be able to get support from enough other MSs to have the confidence of the Senedd. A combination of Labour and Plaid Cymru probably would.
If a UK general election were held today, there's about a one in three chance of a Reform overall majority.
There are signs of a bump for the Greens in recent months. But their success in turning this into seats will depend on whether that's concentrated in a few areas or spread too thinly to break through anywhere.
STATE OF THE CANDIDATES AT 18:00:
With seven constituencies left to declare, Catherine Connolly now has enough votes to be elected.
