Post by @CinnasVerses@awful.systems

2026-10-16 17:45 UTC

Is there a history of how the cult of prediction markets cult spread to Silicon Valley? Its an old idea but since the 1990s is especially popular with Libertarians and hard neoliberals like Robin Hanson. When did it get on LessWrong? By 2013 or so, rationalists were telling strangers at social events that the only way to know if a healthcare system worked was to bet on it, and not just, you know, risk your life and health on it.

Replies (5)

@CinnasVerses@awful.systems 2026-10-16 18:13

CFAR was also in to prediction markets by 2014. rationality.org/…/in-the-game-of-markets-you-win-…

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@Architeuthis@awful.systems 2026-10-16 18:33

Robin Hanson seems like the incredibly obvious primary suspect, you mean where he got the idea in the first place? He is a close associate of Eliezer Yudkowsky, who formerly co-blogged with Hanson on Hanson’s blog, Overcoming Bias, before starting LessWrong. RW also says 2013 was when he first published as papers all his prediction market stuff.

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@nfultz@awful.systems 2026-10-16 18:43

I think a major influence was “Wisdom of the Crowds” which was discussed in the SF / Berkeley tech community quite a bit back then. At some point that got combined with gambling. There’s an old reference here dated 2007: www.overcomingbias.com/p/how_and_when_tohtml

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@Evinceo@awful.systems 2026-10-16 20:05

Cyberlibertarianism covers it relatively well.

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@Soyweiser@awful.systems 2026-10-17 12:54

Well I think the history is just how LW started, with Hanson’s blog and LW being intertwined. They are largely the same space. See also how Hanson spawned the great filter idea.

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