Post by @Architeuthis@awful.systems

2026-10-16 18:33 UTC

Robin Hanson seems like the incredibly obvious primary suspect, you mean where he got the idea in the first place? He is a close associate of Eliezer Yudkowsky, who formerly co-blogged with Hanson on Hanson’s blog, Overcoming Bias, before starting LessWrong. RW also says 2013 was when he first published as papers all his prediction market stuff.

Replies (2)

@CinnasVerses@awful.systems 2026-10-16 18:45

The futarchy paper is funny because Hanson had the idea in 2000 but took 13 years to publish it. That is a good sign that he kept getting a desk reject or “revise and resubmit.” But were people reading his blog, a mix of Libertarian fringe writing, or specifically something by Yudkowsky or SlateScott? Phil Tetlock started his career and the Expert Political Judgement project at the University of California Berkeley although he moved to PA in 1995 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_E._Tetlock

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@CinnasVerses@awful.systems 2026-10-16 19:17

I can;'t find much about prediction markets on SlatStarCodex except a 2016 review of Superforecasters which takes the view that : Maybe all this stuff about probability calibration, inside vs. outside view, willingness to change your mind, and fighting cognitive biases is starting to sound familiar? Yeah, this is pretty much the same stuff as in the Less Wrong Sequences and a lot of CFAR work. They’re both drawing from the same tradition of cognitive science and rationality studies. So maybe it was Hanson > Yud > Rationalist / EA culture, but Hanson likes to take credit for ideas much older than him.

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