acemaxx
acemaxxanalytics@econtwitter.net
<p>macro economics and charts - alumni Uni St. Gallen, Switzerland, Zurich</p>
Posts
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“I told you a measles booster would kill our son, and then turn him libtard and gay!” #AI #DataCenters and more (fucking hilarious) #SouthPark S29 E2 now re-named ‘South America’ – Billionaire Weenietown https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0121955/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0_tt_8_nm_0_in_0_q_South%20Park
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Asking voters to pretend he’s on the ballot for a midterm election—and dangling a cash incentive to sweeten the deal—makes democracy feel less like a civic duty and more like a mobile game promotion: “Unlock $5,000 in-game currency by subscribing to the GOP midterms today!”- @wsj https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/vance-trump-midterm-elections-2026-rnc?mod=hp_lead_pos1
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Investors have never been more eager to ratchet up their stock returns through #margin #loans and funds that amplify gains and losses. It may be a sign of trouble, chart @wsj.com https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-trillion-dollar-borrowing-binge-lifting-the-stock-market-to-risky-heights-8d0377f9
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The number of IPOs in #Japan fell to a 15y low in the first 6-months of the year, a situation that is unlikely to improve in the short term due to a lack of start-ups that can quickly come to market, chart @financialtimes.com https://www.ft.com/content/5e016bbc-b09e-4423-a6fb-588abda72cf7
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#Greenland keeps attracting #investors it may not even want - Donald Trump’s fixation on the territory has put it in an uncomfortable, if potentially lucrative, position, chart #Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-06-29/greenland-is-attracting-more-investors-does-it-even-want-them?srnd=phx-economics-v2
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#TheEconomist is finally recognizing something that has been obvious for 20y. #Germany and the #euro area cannot complain about #China while pursuing exactly the same export-led strategy -chart @TheEconomist https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/06/25/global-imbalances-have-little-to-do-with-europes-industrial-woes
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Europe and the Economic impact of #heatwaves #Germany still lacks comprehensive solutions to manage heat-stress risk, chart @ING_Economics
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(market-implied changes for year-end policy rates) #Traders fully price #Fed (white line) rate hike this year; #ECB (blue line) and #BoE (yellow line), chart #Bloomberg TV live
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GS Research Team is not seeing the strong #wage growth that would likely be needed to generate sustained #inflation, with real wages contracting for the second month in a row as inflation has outpaced wage growth, chart @GoldmanSachs
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The recent #supply shock does not by itself imply that the #eurozone is entering another prolonged inflationary episode, chart @ECB https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/stats/md/html/ecb.md2605~3c7ea02712.en.html
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This week's chart highlights the rising cost of the American Dream, with #WorldCup tickets, #homes, #car prices and #burgers far outpacing CPI #inflation - chart @JPMorganAM
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#UK #Burnham Karen Ward @JPMorganAM is correctly identifying that &quot;when the pie isn&#39;t growing we turn against each other.&quot; OK, agree. But then her policy prescriptions — cut welfare, appease markets, protect companies — https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/andy-burnham-fix-uk-karen-ward-l6vjc/
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#UK #Burnham Karen Ward diagnoses a demand problem and prescribes supply-side medicine. I would say that&#39;s not optimism — it&#39;s the same mistake, repeated over and over again, chart @JPMorganAM https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/andy-burnham-fix-uk-karen-ward-l6vjc/
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#BoJ Bank of #Japan releases its quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment on Wedn, with economists expecting gauges to hold more or less steady in positive territory, chart #Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-27/warsh-makes-debut-on-the-global-stage-with-the-class-of-2008?srnd=phx-economics-v2
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#ECB policymakers spending much of the week in Sintra will have key data releases: The last #euro area inflation estimate before their July decision scheduled for release on Wedn - chart #Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-27/warsh-makes-debut-on-the-global-stage-with-the-class-of-2008?srnd=phx-economics-v2
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On both forward and historical measures, the #tech - and #AI -heavy US and #Taiwan markets look expensive relative to most other major areas. In contrast, the #UK and Europe look cheap, notes @hakyungkim.bsky.social @financialtimes.com https://www.ft.com/content/e5aa937c-bc52-4973-bf21-bfb6afd1d95d
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Yet recent data suggests #Hollywood is in trouble. The end of the online streaming boom, cost-cutting mergers, and the 2023 strike by #actors and writers have left #Tinseltown feeling glum, chart @reuters.com https://www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-view/hollywood-ending-takes-sad-new-meaning-2026-06-23/
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The labor share of income in the U.S. is currently at its lowest-ever level in the post-war period. The #labor share measures the fraction of economic output paid to workers as #wages and #salaries - chart @NewYorkFed.org https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/
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Priority Technologies #Book Review Priority Technologies -Ensuring US Security and Shared Prosperity edited by Elisabeth B Reynolds and foreword by Simon Johnson, @mitpress.bsky.social April 21, 2026, London. https://acemaxxanalytics.substack.com/p/priority-technologies
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#doodle The Strait of #Hormuz is open again - Why you should always look on the bright side of life … #Iran is estimated to have laid about 80 #mines in the waterway’s main #shipping lanes ..
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#Hormuz The type of #mines set by #Iran in the #waterway remains unclear. If most are on the seabed, they will be more difficult to locate and destroy than cruder contact #mines - chart @financialtimes.com https://www.ft.com/content/a0739198-318c-4ae8-9953-ba88201edc45
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Der #China -Schock - Er trifft #Deutschland ins Herz, chart The gap is widening. Growth contributions of net exports to domestic GDP in percent @SZ https://www.sueddeutsche.de/projekte/artikel/politik/china-arbeitsplaetze-wirtschaft-in-china-deutschland-e261869/
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So while the #SZ report emphasizes the external &quot;China shock,&quot; I had like to frame it as the collision b/w #China &#39;s industrial maturation and #Germany &#39;s longstanding dependence on external demand, chart #SZ
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The 1Q 2026 US earnings season was one of the strongest in recent history, chart @GoldmanSachs
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The gap b/w income cohorts continues to widen. The high-income segment, which drives ~40% of total consumption, remains remarkably resilient, bolstered by a $15trn increase in US household net worth and 6% #wage growth, chart @GoldmanSachs
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#Chinese manufacturers build #EVs for b/w 20 and 50% less than their European counterparts, reckons McKinsey. For a #Volkswagen costing roughly €30,000 to produce, that implies a gap of at least €6,000 per vehicle, chart @financialtimes.com https://www.ft.com/content/ccea8285-11f9-45c0-b642-1efe9ef0c1da
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VW CEO Blume is under pressure to revive Volkswagen&#39;s fortunes as it battles tariffs, a costly shift to electric vehicles and growing competition from #Chinese automakers, perhaps its biggest threat. Major automakers have steadily lost ground to locally produced EVs in China – chart @reuters.com
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#Volkswagen is considering shutting 4 #German factories and ramping up #job #cuts to as many as 100,000, chart @reuters.com https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-ceo-aims-cut-up-100000-jobs-next-years-manager-magazin-reports-2026-06-26/
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Market-implied #inflation expectations have fallen sharply with both 2y and 10y #inflation #swaps now below pre-conflict levels, chart @JPMorganAM
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Since the conflict in Iran, the 40-day correlation b/w bond yields and #oil prices has risen, with the two assets moving in lockstep, chart @JPMorganAM