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  Interesting that the plurality seems to be going with the one option I would call obviously wrong (if Alice's number is not 1/2, the conditional probability of this is always greater than 1/2, so the unconditional probability must also be greater than 1/2)

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  @kjhealy @drdrang I think my favorite fact from that wikipedia article is that the VATT is a Gregorian telescope, but for reasons that have nothing to do with any popes named Gregory.

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  @kjhealy I have a bad feeling about this approach