Post by @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai

2026-10-20 20:24 UTC

@cstross@wandering.shop I find this especially funny because one of the people I used to give a little attention to on economic issues as his bright shiny “dynamic model” saying GDP in the US will grow by three and something percent. My brother in Christ, your model is obviously not in contact with reality

Replies (2)

@grumble209@kolektiva.social 2026-10-20 20:31

@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai @cstross@wandering.shop Models are hard. Accurate models for nontrivial systems are *really* hard. "macro economists have predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions." Classic dunking on economists... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVp8UGjECt4

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@ApostateEnglishman@mastodon.world 2026-10-20 20:40

@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai @cstross@wandering.shop GDP is an obviously meaningless measure if the gains aren't broadly distributed. Similar to how, if Elon Musk walks into even the busiest bar, then on a mean average everyone in there is suddenly a billionaire. This is true even if every patron except Musk is on minimum wage. Or worse, facing starvation and deciding on one more pint of piss-warm ale before jumping off a bridge. But this bar is *booming*! 🙄

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