Elektrine lite

← Feed

@phil_browne@fediscience.org

2026-06-08 19:11 UTC

Why are forecasters confident that El Niño is on its way? Especially when looking at SSTs and they seem underwhelming? We need to look deeper into the ocean. 1/2 #WorldOceanDay #WorldOceansDay

Replies (1)

  • @phil_browne@fediscience.org 2026-06-08 19:18

    At @ECMWF@fediscience.org we have routine monitoring plots of the (old) ocean analysis system #ORAS5*. These are designed by my office mate and ocean expert Eric de Boisseson. I asked him about El Niño and he immediately pulled up not maps, but vertical cross sections along the equator. Plots are openly available here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/catalogue/packages/oras5/products/oras5_xzmaps_1m?AnomalyMode=Anomaly&Field=Temperature When you look at things this way, the expectation that we will soon get a surface heat anomaly in the eastern Pacific doesn't need much more explanation. 2/2 *The new system, #ORAS6, is in place but publishing the equivalent plots is not yet there. #WorldOceanDay #WorldOceansDay #ElNiño #ElNino

    Open ##5000337