@ColinTheMathmo@mathstodon.xyz @ansuz@gts.cryptography.dog reminds me of a challenge that popped up in project management software, performing critical path analysis on projects where activity durations were not easily predictable. We modeled this with Monte-Carlo analysis, running the CPA hundreds of times. While the participatory randomness here doesn't mean that you can take a shortcut to analyzing the project's overall time span, you can perhaps say something about the day of the week it'll finish on. If nothing else, that could be a useful test of how accurate your CPA modelling is.