The simple truth is that Putin is losing this war. He's reached a Vietnam-like impasse, where the only way forward is more escalation for fewer results and more and faster death. He's lost over half of his capacity to refine fuel, to the point that there's not enough for his people anymore, and further attacks and cuts PLUS running out of all stockpiles - or having them go up in flames, as tends to happen recently - will make things considerably worse. Meanwhile, the ground war gets uglier...